I have all kinds of opinions about all kinds of things, and keep them mostly to myself. However, in some areas of high political importance, I share my professional views publicly. I also like to check back on my assessments years later to see whether they stood the test of time. Here’s an overview:

The Trump Presidency

2016 “Trump/Hitler comparisons are overstated. How did Hitler actually consolidate power?” Monkey Cage blog of the Washington Post

2020 “Preventing a Catastrophic COVID Crisis in America.” PRIO Blog

2021 “In 2016, I identified four future developments that would justify the Trump-Hitler comparison. Here are the results.” PRIO Blog

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

2023 “NATO Should Pursue Peace over Victory in Ukraine. Here Is Why and How.” PRIO Blog

2023 “Without Clear Goals in Ukraine, All Nations Are ‘Fighting with the Last War’ and That’s a Big Problem.” PRIO Blog

2023 “A Thousand Tiny Quakes” I was asked to comment on NORSAR‘s research into remote conflict monitoring for The New York Times

Science and Academia

2020 “Reviewed Peer Review” PRIO Blog